I'll save you the time: the "Great Moderation" that I began working during in 1984 is over. The stock market bubble became the housing bubble which became ... the Government Debt bubble (which has yet to burst). It's incredible to watch each crisis, and how each one has driven interest rates lower and lower, until we are at ... zero. We have created a scenario where we can't lower them again. Quantitative easing has kept us afloat but for how long?
Inflation remains low but my understanding is the CPI no longer includes food or energy? And while unemployment has lowered my understanding is that is because people have left the workforce, and very few if any "real jobs" have been created. The films producers point out we are an economy that has consumed more than we have produced for an entire decade. They ask the question: "how long can this continue?"
The film really got me thinking about a term they brought up: "moral hazard." If I know the Fed will bail me out on the downside why not accept the risk? It also applies in my mind to debt. In olden days people worried about putting debt on their children and grandchildren. That's no longer the case for many people like me. Free Heath care? Why not? Oh if an anti-viral will save me I can practice unsafe sex? Why not? I never knew it had a name but it does: "moral hazard" and I think it's becoming rapidly absent in modern society.
It's especially applicable to the Justice System. I'm now officially a true crime addict. And one common thread in these horrendous cases is truly dangerous people are released into society time and time again. Criminals routinely violate their paroles with no negative consequences. Yes I'm against the "Prison State." But if we promise to punish but in the end "bail out" the truly bad guys, what are the consequences for a safe society? No easy answers.
Anyway I suppose I should start a blog rather than meander in emails. This movie is kinda a snoozer but I wanted to share my thoughts.
Inflation remains low but my understanding is the CPI no longer includes food or energy? And while unemployment has lowered my understanding is that is because people have left the workforce, and very few if any "real jobs" have been created. The films producers point out we are an economy that has consumed more than we have produced for an entire decade. They ask the question: "how long can this continue?"
The film really got me thinking about a term they brought up: "moral hazard." If I know the Fed will bail me out on the downside why not accept the risk? It also applies in my mind to debt. In olden days people worried about putting debt on their children and grandchildren. That's no longer the case for many people like me. Free Heath care? Why not? Oh if an anti-viral will save me I can practice unsafe sex? Why not? I never knew it had a name but it does: "moral hazard" and I think it's becoming rapidly absent in modern society.
It's especially applicable to the Justice System. I'm now officially a true crime addict. And one common thread in these horrendous cases is truly dangerous people are released into society time and time again. Criminals routinely violate their paroles with no negative consequences. Yes I'm against the "Prison State." But if we promise to punish but in the end "bail out" the truly bad guys, what are the consequences for a safe society? No easy answers.
Anyway I suppose I should start a blog rather than meander in emails. This movie is kinda a snoozer but I wanted to share my thoughts.