Dont Panic
23 November 2020
Warning: Spoilers
Don't Panic - The Truth about Population is a 2013 documentary about human overpopulation. The documentary combines a lecture by Hans Rosling, showing 3D infographics in front of him, with film sequences featuring interesting stories in different regions in the world. One film section is about a family planning worker in Bangladesh, where the life expectancy increased from less than 50 years in 1972 to over 70, while the number of children per woman declined from more than seven to less than 2.5 in average, and is still falling. Many people think population growth is out of control, some even talk about the population bomb. Most of the population growth in recent years has been in Asian countries, like in Bangladesh, where the population has tripled during Rosling's lifetime from 50 to more than 150 million. It's now one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Rosling says that "this number is representative worldwide, the reason why the total number of children globally is now at a stable level of 2 billions." According to him, the so-called population explosion has already been overcome, the human population will peak at eleven billions, and stabilize at this level by the end of the century. We face huge challenges in terms of food, resources and climate change but at the heart of Rosling's statistical message that the world of tomorrow is a much better place than we might imagine. Professor Rosling reveals that the global challenge of rapid population growth, the so-called population explosion, has already been overcome. In just 50 years the average number of children born per woman has plummeted from 5 to just 2.5 and is still falling fast. This means that in a few generations' time, world population growth will level off completely. In what Rosling calls his "Great British Ignorance Survey" he discovers that people's perceptions of the world often seem decades out of date. In Bangladesh, a country once famously described as a "basket-case" families of two children are now the norm. We meet Taslima Khan who travels through rural villages dispensing birth control pills and advice on how to deal with difficult husbands. Deep in rural Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world we meet farmers Andre and Olivia who've been saving for two years to buy a piece of life-transforming technology, a bicycle. Even in these countries, economic growth, investment in healthcare and infrastructure are paving the way to huge improvements in living standards. Globally, the proportion of people in extreme poverty is at its lowest ever, and now the United Nations is setting itself the goal of eradicating extreme poverty completely within the next 20 years. In conclusion there is no reason to panic. Yes the population will continue to grow but at a certain point it will even out and return to the starting point. Rosling predicts with statistics that the future shouldn't be feared but rather welcomed. US population stopped growing at around 325 million people in 2017 and flatlined out, it would produce at best a marginal change in global emissions. Plus, accomplishing that trend would require draconian anti-fertility policies and extremely strict immigration laws. On the other hand, even if US population rises over 500 million people, the impact on the world is barely noticeable. Meanwhile, lowering US carbon intensity by about a third, to around the level of manufacturing-superpower Germany today, has a bigger effect than preventing 100 million Americans from existing. Overpopulation is not the problem.
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